A recent survey has revealed a striking disconnect between the economic reality and the perception of Americans regarding the state of the US economy. Despite positive economic indicators, a significant majority of the population believes the country is experiencing a recession.

The Affirm survey, conducted in June, found that nearly 60% of respondents think the US is in a recession, with most attributing the economic downturn to rising living costs and increased financial strain. This perception is further reinforced by a Guardian/Harris poll from May, which showed that 56% of respondents believed the US was in a recession.

However, economists are puzzled by this disconnect, as the US has experienced continuous growth in gross domestic product (GDP) over the past several years. The National Bureau of Economic Research defines a recession as a significant decline in economic activity lasting more than a few months, affecting the entire economy. The last official recession occurred in 2020, at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The rising costs of everyday items have left many Americans struggling, leading to depleted savings and increased reliance on credit cards. This financial strain is evident in the rise of credit card delinquencies, with the New York Federal Reserve reporting that about 8.9% of credit card balances became delinquent over the past year.

Joyce Chang, chair of global research at JPMorgan, has referred to this situation as a "vibecession," highlighting the disparity between those who have benefited from the economic growth and those who have been left behind. As the disconnect between economic indicators and financial concerns continues to grow, it remains to be seen how this will impact the US economy moving forward.