An analyst has outlined when Bitcoin could achieve a market size comparable to the US Dollar (USD) based on its historical adoption trajectory.

Bitcoin's Path to Challenge the USD Explored by Analyst

In a recent article on X, analyst Willy Woo discussed the growing perception in financial circles regarding Bitcoin's emergence as a significant asset class. Currently, Bitcoin holds a market cap of approximately $1.2 trillion, but Woo highlights that major asset classes typically reach valuations in the tens of trillions.

Woo suggests that the financial world anticipates three key developments for Bitcoin: a tenfold growth to surpass the $10 trillion market cap, reaching parity with the USD in size, and establishing itself as a reserve asset.

However, the timeline for these expectations hinges on Bitcoin's adoption curve. Woo references this curve, comparing Bitcoin's adoption trajectory to that of the internet.

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Bitcoin Adoption Curve

Current adoption stands at around 4.7% of the global population | Source: @woonomic on X

The curve reflects the percentage of the global population currently using Bitcoin, derived from comprehensive studies on cryptocurrency adoption by entities like Glassnode and Cambridge.

Based on this analysis, Bitcoin's adoption rate currently stands at approximately 4.7% of the global population. If Bitcoin follows a trajectory similar to the internet's adoption S-curve, significant acceleration in user adoption could occur from this point onward.

To rival the USD in size, Woo suggests Bitcoin's adoption curve would need to reach between 25% to 40%, potentially achieving this milestone sometime in the 2030s.

The future trajectory of Bitcoin's adoption remains uncertain, particularly in comparison to historical internet adoption trends. As of recent market movements, Bitcoin initially dipped below $59,000 but has since rebounded to trade above $61,400, although its future price trends remain uncertain.