As the crypto market continues to evolve, prominent crypto analyst and trader Eric Crown shares his expert insights on what to expect from Bitcoin in July. In a recent video analysis, Crown delves into historical returns for July, comparing them to the past few months. He notes that July has been a positive month for Bitcoin, with nine out of the last fourteen Julys closing positively, yielding a probability of just over 64% for a positive close.

Crown highlights that the average return for positive closing months in July is just over 19%, while the average loss for negative closing months is just under 9%. He suggests that if Bitcoin continues to consolidate, a tightening range between 60,000 and 70,000 dollars is likely. Crown emphasizes that as long as Bitcoin stays above the May lows, the probability favors an upside, although it is not a certainty given the performance in June.

Crown compares the current month's returns with June, noting that June has been uneventful with very tight price movement, less than 4% from open to the current price. He interprets this as an indication of Bitcoin slowing down for the summer, leading to an extended consolidation period. He also mentions that altcoins are showing significant volatility, reacting dramatically to minor Bitcoin price movements, which he attributes to some of the negative sentiment in the market.

Despite this, Crown remains positive, noting that Bitcoin is trading at more than twice its value compared to last year. Moving forward, he forecasts that Bitcoin will likely close June around 65,000 dollars, maintaining the consolidation range. Crown also highlights that Saturdays have historically been the lowest volatility days for Bitcoin, with a slightly higher probability of a positive close.

Crown refers to a daily setup for Bitcoin using his Quant Automation service, noting that the strike rate for this setup is about 52%, similar to a coin flip. However, the setup's value lies in the average winning trade being over 22% and the average losing trade being just over 8%. He observes that Bitcoin has been consolidating within a 10,000-dollar range and is currently resting on the 50% retracement level at around 63,900 dollars.

Crown asserts that if Bitcoin fails to hold this level, it could head down to the 61,000 to 62,000-dollar range, which he views as a critical area for maintaining bullish hopes. He emphasizes that even if a higher low is established, it will likely take time, potentially extending through the end of July and into August, setting up for a possible Q4 breakout.

In conclusion, Crown notes that the market remains in a consolidation phase, with significant movements unlikely in the immediate term. His expert analysis provides valuable insights for traders and investors, highlighting the potential for a price surge in July. As the crypto market continues to evolve, it is crucial to stay informed and adapt to changing market conditions.