CEOs of leading Bitcoin mining companies maintain an optimistic outlook as the halving event approaches, despite their failure to outperform bitcoin year-to-date.

The underperformance is attributed to robust U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund flows diverting retail liquidity from miner stocks and concerns about the halving's impact on miners' revenue.

According to Bernstein's recent interviews, Marathon CEO Fred Thiel noted that the market views mining stocks primarily as bitcoin proxies. Post-ETF launch, a popular trade has been long spot Bitcoin ETFs and short the miners, contributing to the underperformance.

CleanSpark CEO Zack Bradford believes that Bitcoin mining stocks will fare better post-halving, particularly benefiting consolidating winners over smaller, less efficient miners. Bradford anticipates consolidation in the mining industry, with four leading public miners emerging: CleanSpark, Marathon, Riot Platforms, and Cipher Mining.

Thiel echoed this sentiment, identifying CleanSpark as their main competitor in acquisition targets.

Meanwhile, Riot focuses on organic expansion, planning to bring a new 1 GW site online to significantly increase its capacity for the rest of 2024. Marathon and CleanSpark also anticipate doubling their capacity by the year's end.

As the Bitcoin halving event approaches in five days, miners are preparing for the reduction in subsidy rewards per block. Despite the halving historically being viewed as a challenge for miners, the CEOs highlighted that Bitcoin's price surge this year has led to near all-time high dollar revenues.

Additionally, strong blockchain activity has increased transaction fee revenues, providing miners with a financial cushion post-halving.

Growing demand for AI presents both opportunities and challenges for miners. While AI aids in reducing Bitcoin ASIC chip costs, it also intensifies competition for acquiring sites in low-cost power states like Texas.

Looking ahead, Bernstein expects top public miners to outperform bitcoin over the next 12 months, benefiting from increased market share, strong revenues, and capacity expansion.