Renowned on-chain analyst Checkmate has predicted that Bitcoin is on the verge of a significant price movement after a prolonged period of consolidation. The analyst's forecast is based on a crucial on-chain metric that suggests the cryptocurrency is building up energy for a major move.

Checkmate's analysis focuses on the sell-side risk ratio, which indicates that short-term investors are losing momentum. This metric suggests that Bitcoin is "coiled like a spring" and ready to burst into action. The analyst believes that the current consolidation phase will soon give way to a more volatile market, characterized by significant price movements.

However, Checkmate also warned of a potential threat to Bitcoin's price from the US bond market. The analyst noted that the 10-year Treasury yield is currently in an uptrend and approaching 5%, which could create adverse conditions for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Higher yields typically indicate tighter financial conditions, less valuable collateral, and a decrease in risk tolerance among investors.

Checkmate highlighted a historical context where a similar situation led to a substantial sell-off in Bitcoin's price. The analyst warned that if the 10-year Treasury yield rises towards 5%, it could indicate increased risk for Bitcoin and other financial assets, requiring intervention from the Fed and the US Treasury to stabilize the market.

In conclusion, Checkmate's analysis suggests that Bitcoin is poised for a significant price movement after consolidation. However, the analyst also warned of a potential threat from the US bond market, highlighting the delicate balance in financial markets and the potential for significant movements in Bitcoin's price depending on bond market dynamics.