The Bitcoin price has entered a period of strong consolidation following the Bitcoin halving event in April. In the past several weeks, BTC has been fluctuating between $60,000 and $70,000. Without a decisive breakout above $70,000, Bitcoin is likely to remain in this consolidation phase.

However, macroeconomic factors could play a crucial role in pushing Bitcoin past its all-time high levels from March 2024. According to a recent report by Markus Thielen, head of 10x Research, if May’s inflation rate falls below 3.3%, Bitcoin could rally to new highs. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on June 12.

Thielen pointed out a slight drop of 0.1 percentage points from the previous CPI reading of 3.4% as of May 15. He expects strong inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to continue leading up to the CPI data release.

If the CPI numbers exceed expectations, it could weaken Bitcoin's price momentum, as seen earlier this year. Recently, there have been significant inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs over the last two weeks of May.

### Inflation as the Key Driver for Bitcoin Price

Thielen emphasized that Bitcoin's price movements are not random but are influenced by key factors such as inflation. Throughout 2024, Bitcoin has moved in sync with inflation, often dropping when CPI data exceeded expectations.

For instance, on April 10, the CPI was reported at 3.5%, slightly higher than anticipated. By April 30, Bitcoin's price had fallen by 6.67% to $56,000. Thielen noted that despite $611 million in inflows on the first day of spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 11, overall January inflows were disappointing, mainly due to higher-than-expected CPI results.

"The CPI came in at 3.4%, higher than the 3.2% expected and the 3.1% from the previous month. It’s no coincidence that Bitcoin was weak in January, stronger in March, but then consolidated for two months," Thielen wrote.