Online bettors on blockchain-based betting platform Polymarket are predicting that US President Joe Biden will withdraw from the upcoming US elections following his lackluster performance in the presidential debate against Donald Trump.

Bettors estimate Biden’s chances of dropping out of the race at 38 cents against 63 cents. This bet has attracted over $7 million in wagers as of the latest update.

Similarly, forecasting startup Manifold reports a similar sentiment. They indicate that the likelihood of Biden being the Democratic candidate for the forthcoming election has plummeted from 94% to 68% within the past day.

Jim Bianco from Bianco Research highlighted the significant volume of bets placed, noting that prediction markets provide real-time insights into public sentiment following events like debates. He commented,

“Our interpretation is that Biden is facing significant challenges that may be difficult to overcome. However, if Biden is replaced with an acceptable candidate, Trump's prospects might not necessarily improve either. In other words, Trump's victory may have come at a high cost.”

Why are people speculating on a Biden dropout?

The actions of bettors on prediction markets underscore the reaction to Biden’s performance in the first presidential debate. Market experts observed that replacing a candidate just months before the election is unprecedented in modern political history and would have been unthinkable until recently. However, concerns about Biden's health and cognitive abilities have intensified following the debate.

Demetri Sevastopulo, US-China Correspondent for the Financial Times, reported,

“A Democratic lawmaker tells me that a broad cross-section of House Democrats were exchanging texts during the debate, all reaching the conclusion that Biden should drop out of the race. They are proposing an open convention to energize voters.”

Who might replace Biden?

Data from Polymarket indicates that bettors are speculating on potential candidates to replace Biden. The market for "Democratic Nominee 2024" on the platform has garnered nearly $62 million in bets, with Biden still leading.

Interestingly, California Governor Gavin Newsom’s odds have risen to 15%, indicating growing support. Newsom, who is a supporter of Biden, praised the President’s debate performance.

Meanwhile, former US First Lady Michelle Obama has a 9% chance of being a contender, and Vice President Kamala Harris also remains a strong possibility, with odds of 8%.