Ether (ETH) has struggled to break above $3,750 over the past three days, even with the anticipated launch of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States. The lack of bullish momentum is partly due to uncertainty regarding the timeline for individual S-1 fund filing approvals by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This hesitation among Ether investors is reflected in derivatives metrics, which have hit a three-week low.

Despite potential SEC approval for Ethereum ETFs from firms like BlackRock, Fidelity, and VanEck, investors worry that the current market conditions may not favor strong demand for these ETFs. Regulatory uncertainty is a significant factor dampening enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies, coupled with broader macroeconomic concerns, particularly stress in the real estate market.

Major exchanges like Coinbase, Binance, and Kraken are facing legal actions for allegedly failing to register as brokers while offering securities investments. Additionally, the SEC and the U.S. Department of Justice have targeted crypto companies using privacy tools such as Samourai Wallet and Tornado Cash. Regulators argue that Ether staking services might be considered securities due to the promise of returns based on others' efforts.

Investors are also cautious about holding riskier assets like cryptocurrencies during potential economic downturns. Moody’s Ratings highlighted that at least six U.S. regional banks are at risk of debt rating downgrades due to significant exposure to commercial real estate, which is suffering from higher interest rates. The New York Times reported on the Chinese housing market, noting that nearly four million apartments are unsold despite government incentives, leading to falling housing prices and financial strain on developers closely tied to local banks.

These unfavorable macroeconomic conditions have impacted Bitcoin's ability to break above $71,000 on June 7, which in turn has tempered expectations for Ethereum's ETF inflows. This sentiment is evident in ETH futures and options metrics, which have reached their most pessimistic point in over three weeks.

Professional traders often prefer monthly contracts due to the absence of a funding rate. Typically, these instruments trade at a premium of 5% to 10% to account for their extended settlement period. Recent data shows that the ETH futures premium dropped to 13% on June 10, down from 15% on June 6, marking the lowest level in more than three weeks. This decline is concerning, especially given predictions that Ethereum ETFs could capture up to 20% of Bitcoin’s ETF inflows.

To further gauge market sentiment, traders also analyze options markets. If investors anticipate a drop in Ether's price, the 2-month delta skew metric rises above 8%, while periods of excitement lead to a negative 8% skew. The ETH options 25% delta skew last showed bullish levels on May 29, but the current -6% level is neutral, indicating that whales and market makers are equally weighing the chances of positive and negative price movements.

Considering that both ETH futures and options are signaling reduced bullishness, despite the potential for spot Ethereum ETF trading in the U.S., it seems unlikely that ETH will break above $4,000 in the near term. The combination of regulatory uncertainty, macroeconomic challenges, and cautious investor sentiment presents significant hurdles for Ethereum's price rally.