JPMorgan has revised its estimate of the cost of producing bitcoin to $45,000, up from its previous estimate of $42,000. This change is due to a shift in bitcoin mining hashrate, with some miners exiting the network as it becomes less profitable. According to JPMorgan analysts, the current hashrate and power consumption put the central estimate of bitcoin production cost at around $45,000, which is below the current price of around $65,000.

The analysts had previously estimated the cost of producing one bitcoin to be $42,000 in February and predicted that the price of bitcoin would drop to this level once the halving-induced euphoria subsides. However, the updated estimate of $45,000 does not necessarily imply that JPMorgan expects the bitcoin price to rise to that level. The production cost estimate is subject to change as the hashrate and mining equipment efficiency evolve.

The launch of the Bitcoin Runes protocol had temporarily boosted bitcoin transaction fees, providing a revenue boost for miners. However, this boost was short-lived, and the analysts note that bitcoin miners continue to face challenges in maintaining a sustainable source of revenue, particularly in the post-halving environment. As unprofitable miners exit the network, the hashrate and production cost are expected to decline, which is part of a natural feedback loop linked to Bitcoin prices.

Overall, the analysts remain bearish on bitcoin prices, citing limited upside due to headwinds such as limited inflow into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs and lackluster demand for Hong Kong spot bitcoin and ether ETFs.