Justin Sun, the founder of the Tron blockchain, predicts that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will not approve an Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) in May. In a post on X (formerly Twitter) on April 28, Sun emphasized the need for the crypto industry to engage in long-term education with regulators to help them understand the workings of the emerging sector.

Sun's viewpoint aligns with that of many market analysts who anticipate the SEC rejecting the pending Ethereum ETF applications. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas places the likelihood of the SEC approving a spot Ethereum ETF in May at 25%, citing the SEC's less active involvement compared to the Bitcoin ETF application period.

Speculation suggests that the Gary Gensler-led agency is considering classifying ETH as a security, prompting a lawsuit from Consensys against the Commission. Feedback from recent meetings with the SEC indicates a pessimistic outlook, with approval prospects appearing dim.

Consequently, the probability of an Ethereum ETF approval has dropped to 11%, according to Polymarket data. Despite this, some optimism remains as ETF issuers like BlackRock and Grayscale continue to update their applications. Franklin Templeton's spot Ethereum ETF recently appeared on the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC) website, even though the SEC deferred its decision on the ETF application in April.

Craig Salm, Grayscale's Chief Legal Officer, believes that the SEC's lack of engagement with spot Ethereum ETF applicants will not be a decisive factor in hindering the prospects of such products. He asserts that investors deserve access to Ethereum through a spot Ethereum ETF, emphasizing the strength of the case for such products, similar to spot Bitcoin ETFs.