QCP Capital has issued a bullish outlook for the market, citing several indicators that suggest a potentially significant upward movement in prices. The firm notes that BTC futures swap points have bounced off recent lows, indicating that traders are taking profits on their basis trades and positioning themselves for a potential "upside surprise."

One key sign of this optimism is the aggressive buying of 13-Jun calls, which has led to a substantial increase in the funding rate. This suggests that market participants are anticipating a positive development that could propel prices higher.

QCP believes that an inline CPI print and a neutral outcome from the FOMC meeting could serve as catalysts to drive the crypto market to retest its previous highs. With equity markets consistently reaching record highs, the firm sees a structurally bullish environment that could support a significant upward movement in prices.

In light of this, QCP presents a trade idea centered around ERKOs (Exotic Return Knockout options), specifically highlighting the BTC 28-Jun Call ERKO as an attractive opportunity with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio and minimal cash outlay. This ERKO has a strike price of 68k and a knockout level at 75k, offering a potential max payout of 5.6 times the initial investment if the BTC spot price remains below 75k at expiry.

The recent U.S. CPI report, which showed flat inflation and a decline from April's growth, has also contributed to the bullish sentiment. The soft inflation data is seen as favorable for Bitcoin, which responded positively to the news by surging to $69,400, a nearly 4% increase over the past 24 hours.

The reduced expectations for interest rate cuts, as indicated by the CME FedWatch Tool, also bode well for the cryptocurrency market. Traders are now looking for looser monetary conditions to fuel the next leg of the crypto rally towards record prices.

Overall, QCP's analysis suggests that the market is positioning itself for an "upside surprise," with several factors aligning to support a significant upward movement in prices.