Bitcoin's recent surge propelled it beyond the $42,000 mark, signaling a potential end to the crypto winter of 2022. However, it's worth noting that the largest cryptocurrency began the year on uncertain footing, starting at a modest $16,500.

Just as you are making your 2024 resolutions, the Crypto and Bitcoin market is also making one. Here's the scoop on the crypto world as we look forward to the next year. Big things are on the horizon, like finding out if a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) gets approved, the Bitcoin halving, and changes in crypto rules.

1. The Spot Bitcoin ETF could make a big difference.

"I'm optimistic, but I think it's quite likely we have another round of rejections before we get the positive news," BitGo CEO Mike Belshe recently told Bloomberg.

When Blackrock first asked the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) about it in June, everyone in the crypto market has been keeping a close eye on whether it will get approved.

Currently, regular investors can only get into cryptocurrencies through ETFs tied to cryptocurrency futures. But if a spot Bitcoin ETF gets the green light from the SEC, it would let investors, especially everyday ones, enter the world of Bitcoin without needing a special Bitcoin wallet.

Analysts think a lot of money could pour into Bitcoin spot ETFs if the SEC approves them. This positive outlook has already pushed up Bitcoin prices. A Bloomberg report suggests that the market for spot Bitcoin ETFs could reach $100 billion eventually. According to Galaxy's report, the money flowing into spot Bitcoin ETFs could go from $14 billion in the first year to $39 billion within three years.

That said, there remains uncertainty around the SEC's decision. The SEC has reportedly held multiple rounds of talks with prospective ETF issuers, with issuers amending applications to meet regulators' expectations.

2. The significance of the upcoming Bitcoin halving

"If these trends continue, the Grayscale Research team anticipates that the dynamics of Bitcoin’s ownership could increasingly amplify the impact of macro events, like evolving global policies and regulation (e.g., approval of US spot Bitcoin ETF), as well as crypto market developments, like the 2024 Bitcoin halving," said Grayscale Analyst Will Ogden Moore.

The upcoming Bitcoin halving in 2024 is a significant event that occurs roughly every four years, cutting rewards to Bitcoin miners in half. With a finite supply of 21 million, each halving makes Bitcoin harder to mine and impacts the number of Bitcoins in circulation.

The crypto market's cycles often align with these halving events, and there's anticipation that the 2024 event, coupled with potential positive effects from a spot Bitcoin ETF approval, could be more impactful. Despite the reduced rewards for miners, the mining industry is expected to remain robust, even if a spot Bitcoin ETF is not approved, thanks to favorable economic conditions and sustained profit margins.

3. Are we heading towards clearer rules for crypto?

2023 has seen major legal actions in the crypto world, with companies like Binance and Coinbase facing lawsuits. Former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried was found guilty of fraud, and Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao is dealing with charges. The era of crypto's "Wild West" seems to be ending, with U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis expressing hope for clearer regulations in early 2024. The involvement of traditional financial giants in crypto and Congress's increased concerns about illicit finance using cryptocurrencies are contributing to a renewed focus on regulation

Looking ahead to 2024, TradeStation's Anthony Rousseau highlighted potential influences on the crypto market. The Financial Account Standards Board (FASB) changing its rules for valuing crypto assets allows businesses to consider adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets, similar to what MicroStrategy has done. Additionally, there's a chance that the tightening of monetary policies by the Federal Reserve and other central banks might ease, creating a more favorable environment for risk assets if interest rates decrease and Quantitative Tightening ends.

Although, predicting specific details about the future of the crypto market is challenging due to its volatile nature. Factors like regulatory developments, technological advancements, and market sentiment can influence it.

It is important to keep an eye on trends, news, and potential regulatory changes for insights into possible outcomes.