Anthony Scaramucci, the outspoken founder of SkyBridge Capital, has a warning for crypto enthusiasts: buckle up for a potential price plunge. In a recent interview, Scaramucci pointed towards war and terrorism as threats that could send Bitcoin's value tumbling 10-15% within the next year.

His reasoning hinges on Bitcoin's relative infancy. According to Scaramucci, Bitcoin needs a userbase exceeding 1 billion to fulfill its promise as an inflation hedge or a safe haven for investors. Until then, he says, Bitcoin will remain susceptible to wild price swings, heavily influenced by global events.

This prediction isn't entirely hypothetical. Scaramucci's comments came just before a dip in Bitcoin's price, triggered by news of an Israeli missile strike on Iran. This incident highlights how geopolitical tensions can trigger investor flight from riskier assets like Bitcoin, pushing them towards traditional safe havens like gold.

Bitcoin's Long Game: A Bullish Outlook

Despite the short-term risks, Scaramucci remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term trajectory. He sees several factors fueling a potential surge towards $200,000, including the recent launch of a Bitcoin Spot ETF, the increasing involvement of major financial institutions, and the upcoming Bitcoin halving – a technical event that restricts the flow of new Bitcoins into circulation.

Scaramucci also downplayed concerns about excessive centralization due to ETFs. He argues that institutional ownership, including big players like BlackRock, represents a small fraction of the overall Bitcoin market – less than 10%.

Furthermore, Scaramucci has revised his Bitcoin price prediction upwards. He now believes Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by mid-to-late 2025, surpassing his earlier prediction of $170,000. This hinges on Bitcoin maintaining a price above $45,000 at the time of the halving.

The Verdict: Bitcoin's Path Forward

Scaramucci's insights offer a nuanced perspective on Bitcoin's future. While short-term geopolitical risks loom large, Bitcoin's long-term prospects appear promising, fueled by growing adoption and upcoming technical events. Only time will tell if Bitcoin can weather the storm and reach its lofty price targets.