XRP price is encountering hurdles in surpassing the critical resistance level at $0.5120, indicating potential challenges in initiating a fresh uptrend. If the price remains below $0.5060 and $0.5120, a downside move could be anticipated in the near term.

Presently, XRP is grappling with rallying above $0.5120, with the price currently trading beneath $0.5050 as well as the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. On the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair sourced from Kraken, a short-term descending channel is forming, establishing a resistance barrier at $0.5040.

For the XRP token to start a notable upward move, a crucial breakthrough above the $0.5120 resistance level needs to materialize. However, should the price fail to surpass this resistance, a retracement may be on the horizon. The bears exhibited activity near $0.5120, leading the price to correct gains, dipping below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward swing from the $0.4865 low to the $0.5120 high.

While the price resides below $0.5050 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average, bullish momentum persists above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the swing low of $0.4865 to the swing high of $0.5120. Immediate resistance looms around the $0.5040 level, complemented by the forming declining channel resistance at $0.5040 on the hourly chart.

In the event of a breakout above the $0.5060 resistance zone, there is potential for a price surge. The subsequent major resistance stands at $0.5120, and a sustained bullish push above this level might pave the way for an ascent towards the $0.5250 and $0.5350 resistances.

Conversely, should XRP struggle to overcome the $0.5040 resistance, a continuation of a downward trajectory could ensue. The initial support is anticipated near the $0.4965 level, followed by a crucial support juncture at $0.4925. Subsequent downtrend persistence might lead to a breach and closure below the $0.4925 level, potentially catalyzing a further decline under the $0.4865 support area.

Analyzing the technical indicators, the hourly MACD for XRP/USD is veering towards a bearish trajectory, while the hourly RSI for the pair has dipped below the 50 level, portraying wavering bullish sentiment. Key support levels lie at $0.4965 and $0.4925, with major resistance benchmarks pegged at $0.5040 and $0.5120.