A well-respected on-chain analyst suggests that a significant drop in Bitcoin's (BTC) price might be the necessary trigger for a substantial rally to new highs. In a recent interview on the "What Bitcoin Did" podcast, the analyst, known by the pseudonym Checkmate, discussed how current on-chain data indicates a notable reduction in sell-side pressure since April, when many investors sold their holdings near Bitcoin's all-time highs.

However, Checkmate pointed out that Bitcoin is struggling to maintain its upward trajectory due to a lack of new demand. He explained that while the bulls have less work to do to push Bitcoin higher because of the reduced selling pressure, the absence of new buyers is holding the price back. This scenario, according to Checkmate, underscores the need for a catalyst to stimulate the next phase of the bull market.

The analyst believes that Bitcoin will likely need to experience lower prices to attract investor interest and build the momentum necessary for a significant upward move. He emphasized that markets typically require a catalyst to initiate a rally, and in many cases, that catalyst is lower prices. A sharp decline could prompt a surge in buying activity, similar to what happened during the market crash in March 2020.

Checkmate elaborated that the market needs to find a "marginal buyer," someone willing to step in at lower prices, to kickstart the next rally. He noted that the financial media often attribute market movements to specific events or figures, but the underlying reason is often a lack of demand. Without sufficient buying interest, prices will continue to fall until they reach a level that attracts buyers.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $60,660, and the analyst's perspective suggests that a further decline could be beneficial in the long run, serving as the spark that ignites a new bull market. This approach highlights the cyclical nature of markets, where downward movements often precede significant upward trends.

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**US Banks Offloading Commercial Real Estate Loans Ahead of Anticipated Losses**

Daily Hodl Staff, June 29, 2024

According to a new report, some of the largest banks in the United States are discreetly reducing their exposure to a struggling sector of the economy: commercial real estate. The New York Times reported that these banks are selling off commercial real estate loans to "cut their losses."

Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have recently sold portions of a troubled $1.7 billion loan portfolio backed by office buildings in major cities such as New York, San Francisco, and Boston. Similarly, Capital One has sold a $1 billion portfolio that included numerous office loans in New York.

While the value of the loans being sold is relatively small compared to the $2.5 trillion in commercial real estate loans held by all U.S. banks, this trend indicates a significant shift. The banking industry’s previous strategy of "extend and pretend" is losing effectiveness, and many property owners, particularly those of office buildings, are expected to default on their mortgages. This scenario is likely to result in substantial losses for lenders and negatively impact bank earnings.

The commercial real estate market has been hit hard by the rise of remote work, leading to an increase in vacancies and financial strain on property owners. In March alone, there were 625 commercial real estate foreclosures nationwide, a 117% increase compared to the previous year. California experienced the most severe impact, with 187 foreclosures, marking a 405% increase from March 2023.

As the work-from-home trend continues to reshape the commercial real estate landscape, banks are bracing for more defaults and preparing for the financial fallout. This proactive approach to reducing exposure to troubled loans highlights the challenges facing the commercial real estate market and the broader economic implications.

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In summary, a significant drop in Bitcoin's price might be the trigger needed for a substantial rally, as suggested by a well-known on-chain analyst. The analyst, Checkmate, believes that lower prices could attract new investor interest and build the momentum necessary for the next bull market phase. Meanwhile, major U.S. banks are quietly offloading commercial real estate loans to mitigate anticipated losses, driven by the ongoing challenges in the commercial real estate sector due to the rise of remote work. This shift reflects a broader acceptance that many property owners are likely to default on their mortgages, resulting in inevitable losses for lenders.