Ethereum's price trajectory has notably lagged behind Bitcoin's gains in 2024, prompting analysts at Glassnode to delve into potential reasons for this divergence and to speculate on future trends. The weaker performance of Ether relative to Bitcoin has resulted in a subdued ETH/BTC ratio, which hit a low of $0.04622 on May 1, marking its lowest level since April 2021. Glassnode attributes Ethereum's underperformance primarily to a delay in speculative interest from the Short-Term Holder (STH) cohort, defined as investors who acquired their coins within the last 155 days, often considered a gauge of new investor demand.

While Bitcoin has witnessed a surge in speculative activity leading up to all-time highs, reflected in capital accumulation among STHs, Ethereum has yet to mirror this trend. Glassnode's on-chain data reveals that Ethereum's STH-Realized Cap remains significantly lower than previous cycle levels, indicating a notable shortfall in new capital inflows. This disparity underscores Ethereum's underperformance relative to Bitcoin, further accentuated by its tepid response to the recent halving event compared to Bitcoin's resilience.

Despite the recent correction in both Bitcoin and Ethereum prices following the halving, Glassnode identifies a macro uptrend in the market, characterized by relatively shallow corrections. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric suggests that both Ethereum and Bitcoin are still in the early stages of this uptrend, with a low Realized Cap associated with Long-Term Holders (LTHs). However, Glassnode notes a discrepancy in capital inflows between the two assets, with Bitcoin attracting a majority of the inflows, possibly driven by the introduction of US spot ETFs.

Analyzing the rotation of capital between Bitcoin and Ethereum, Glassnode observes a pronounced concentration of speculative activity within Bitcoin, with limited spill-over into Ethereum thus far. While the market dynamics have followed patterns reminiscent of previous cycles, Glassnode emphasizes Ethereum's persistent underperformance relative to Bitcoin, highlighting the need for further scrutiny of capital flows and speculative behavior between the two assets.