The final deadline for VanEck's first spot Ethereum ETF application is Wednesday, May 23, when the SEC will make its decision to approve or deny it. The Ark 21Shares spot ETH ETF has its deadline on Thursday, May 24, but Wednesday's outcome will likely influence other issuers awaiting decisions, including Hashdex, Grayscale, Invesco Galaxy, BlackRock, and Fidelity.

The likelihood of approval doesn't seem favorable. On May 20, ETF Store President Nate Geraci noted that for ETFs to launch, the SEC must approve both the 19b-4s (exchange rule changes) and the S-1s (registration statements). He suggested that the regulator might approve the 19b-4s and delay the S-1s to evaluate market conditions or ETF structures further without outright denying the applications.

Five SEC Commissioners will vote on VanEck's ETF on Wednesday, with Gary Gensler, who supported spot Bitcoin ETFs in January, among them. The other four, Hester Pierce, Mark Uyeda, Caroline Crenshaw, and Jaime Lizárraga, may lean on Gensler's vote.

Regarding the ETH price outlook, an approval could cause a short-term pump, but rejection is anticipated. Analysts believe the bearish rejection scenario is already factored in, suggesting that eventual approval may occur even if denied this week. While ETH prices are slightly down at around $3,100, an unexpected approval could lead to a rapid upside move towards resistance at $3,500 and potentially higher.