In the competitive landscape of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States, the once substantial margin between Grayscale and BlackRock has dwindled to a mere $1.5 billion. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) currently holds the top position with $18.7 billion assets under management, encompassing around 297,000 Bitcoin. Nonetheless, persistent outflows from GBTC have opened the door for BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) to mount pressure on the frontrunners.

Presently, BlackRock's fund boasts an AUM of $17.2 billion, bringing it within striking distance, standing just $1.5 billion shy of overtaking GBTC. To place this advancement into context, the third-ranking Bitcoin ETF lags significantly behind with a deficit exceeding $7.5 billion. Market observers, bolstered by insights from Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, initially speculated that IBIT might surpass GBTC before the end of April. Although this projection appears increasingly improbable, it was certainly not far from the realm of possibility.

BlackRock's IBIT fund has encountered a recent deceleration in flows over four consecutive days, a trend that may have contributed to the divergence from the Bloomberg analysts' earlier forecast. However, prior to this deceleration, the fund had demonstrated a remarkable streak of inflows spanning 71 consecutive days, positioning it halfway toward a potential milestone for ETFs. Notably, since its commencement of trading, IBIT has yet to experience a single day of outflows, a sharp contrast to Grayscale's GBTC, which has consistently witnessed net outflows since its inception, as per data by CoinGlass.

On a challenging day like March 19, GBTC faced an outflow of $618.2 million. Even if IBIT replicated its best-performing inflow totaling $856.53 million from March 12, the fund would still fall short by $25 million of seizing the lead position. Notably, neither fund has observed such substantial flows in the recent fortnight. Throughout mid-April, IBIT's daily inflows breached the $30 million mark only once. Nevertheless, over the past two weeks following Balchunas' forward-looking prediction, the gap between IBIT and GBTC has contracted significantly, nearly halving from $2.3 billion to $1.5 billion.