Bitcoin (BTC) often cycles between bear and bull markets, influenced by its block reward halvings. Historically, bull markets follow halvings, with the two years prior usually being bearish. However, the current cycle is unique, displaying different patterns.

Unique Bull Market Trends

The current bull market began in mid-2023, sparked by excitement over the potential approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US. When these ETFs were approved at the start of 2024, Bitcoin's price soared past its 2021 peak, reaching around $74,000. This marks the first time Bitcoin has hit a new high before a block reward halving.

The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, particularly those backed by major financial firms like BlackRock and Fidelity, has bolstered Bitcoin's legitimacy as an investment asset. This led to a significant influx of investments, driving up Bitcoin’s price. While demand has stabilized recently, Bitcoin's price remains robust, ranging between $60,000 and $70,000.

Speculation that the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates later this year is also fueling positive sentiment towards Bitcoin. Lower interest rates typically benefit riskier assets like cryptocurrencies. If the Fed does cut rates, it could further support Bitcoin's price rise.

The most recent Bitcoin block reward halving, which took place a month ago, also influences the current market. While some experts argue that the impact of halvings has lessened over time, the reduction in new BTC production to about 450 BTC per day is still significant. This supply constraint, along with ongoing accumulation by ETFs, large investors (whales), and individual buyers, suggests that Bitcoin's price may continue to rise.

Bull Market Could Extend for Another Year

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju notes that Bitcoin is currently in the midst of a bull cycle. He points out that Bitcoin's market value is growing faster than its realized value, indicating a strong market. Bull markets typically last about two years, suggesting that this current run could continue for roughly another 11 months.

In summary, Bitcoin’s latest bull market is driven by unique factors, including the approval of spot ETFs and potential changes in US monetary policy. With reduced new supply and steady demand, Bitcoin's price might remain strong for the foreseeable future.