The cryptocurrency market is at a crossroads, with Bitcoin (BTC) hovering around the $61,000 support level. Despite recent price drops, long-term holders have been hesitant to buy, signaling a pessimistic market sentiment. However, a change in supply held by long-term holders could be the catalyst for a rally.

The lack of demand and long-term holder behavior have raised concerns, with ETF flows primarily negative over the past two weeks. However, the past two days have seen some relief from the selling pressure, hinting at a potential shift in sentiment. Crypto analyst Axel Adler observed that the supply change among long-term holders has been minimal, indicating a lack of conviction in the market.

The spent output age bands show that large coin movements have occurred from 7-10 year and 3-5 year holders in late May and mid-June, respectively. This suggests that long-term holders are selling, adding to the selling pressure. However, this does not guarantee further price downturns, and a change in sentiment could be on the horizon.

The supply in profit has reached an inflection point, with the threshold of optimism/pessimism having been reached. Historically, when the supply in profit line crosses below this point, the market enters an extended accumulation phase, accompanied by a price drop. However, a change in long-term holder behavior could signal a rally.

In conclusion, Bitcoin holders should be prepared for a potential rally if the current conditions shift. A change in long-term holder behavior and a shift in market sentiment could be the catalyst for a price increase. While the current signs are pessimistic, a change in supply held by long-term holders could signal a rally, and holders should be prepared to take advantage of this opportunity.