Bitcoin options remain optimistic despite the recent price drop, with analysts noting a bullish put-call skew. The put-call ratio of bitcoin options remains optimistic in anticipation of the quarterly expiry on the last Friday of this month. The put-call ratio indicates a higher number of call options relative to put options, suggesting a bullish sentiment among traders. This is despite developments that might amplify downside risks for the top cryptocurrency. Recent developments could intensify selling pressure on bitcoin, including the Mt. Gox trustee's announcement of repayments to creditors in bitcoin and bitcoin cash, and German authorities' confiscation of 50,000 bitcoin valued at over $2.1 billion.

Despite these pressures, analysts note that derivative market indicators continue to show sustained bullish sentiment for bitcoin as it approaches the weekly, monthly, and quarterly options expiry this Friday, June 28. Calls greatly outnumber puts, especially from $65,000 on upward. This is likely a by-product of the bullish sentiment we opened the month with, rather than the current situation we are considering.

The options market is not anticipating increased volatility in July following Monday’s Mt. Gox creditor repayment announcement. Price action is likely to be capped in the near term but potentially bullish heading into year-end. Traders appear to be positioning for a significant rally towards the end of the year.

The bitcoin options expiry on June 30 might play a decisive role in determining whether the $30,000 price will consolidate as long-term support and open room for further bullish momentum. Many analysts consider Bitcoin’s recent breakout above $27,000 to be a bet on the multiple spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications, including those of BlackRock and ARK Invest. The news also fueled expectations for Grayscale to be able to convert its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust to a Bitcoin ETF.

Bitcoin bears will try to take advantage of macroeconomic and regulatory headwinds, including exchanges implementing mandatory Know Your Customer (KYC) procedures. On June 28, KuCoin announced an upcoming KYC system upgrade in a move to increase compliance with global Anti-Money Laundering regulations.

Moreover, there’s increasing concern over the impact of miners’ sell pressure, with the network hash rate reaching 400 exahashes per second. Analytics firm Glassnode noted that miners sent an all-time high percentage of their BTC revenue to exchanges over the past week, totaling $128 million. Curiously, the movement mimics spikes seen during the 2021 bull run as miners took profits.

Additionally, during the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking in Portugal, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that most policymakers expect two more rate hikes this year. According to the CME's FedWatch Tool, investors are pricing in 82% odds of a 25-basis-point interest rate increase on July 26. Such a restrictive scenario for the global economy might explain why some Bitcoin traders decided to take profits, which limited the price upside.

The open interest for the June 30 options expiry is $4.7 billion, but the actual figure will be lower since bulls were expecting price levels of $32,000 or higher. These traders got excessively optimistic after Bitcoin’s price rallied 25.5% between June 15 and June 23, testing the $31,000 resistance. The 0.56 put-to-call ratio reflects the imbalance between the $3.1 million in call (buy) open interest and the $1.7 million in put (sell) options.

But if Bitcoin’s price remains near $30,500 at 8:00 am UTC on June 30, only $630 million worth of these call (buy) options will be available. This difference happens because the right to buy Bitcoin at $31,000 or $32,000 is useless if BTC trades below that level on expiry.

Bitcoin bears aim for sub-$30,000 to balance the scales. The number of options contracts available on June 30 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit.

Consequently, it will come down to whether BTC price bears are willing to risk exposure while a potential spot Bitcoin ETF approval is being analyzed by the SEC. Although it is impossible to estimate the potential inflow or the timing of such an event, it paves the way for bulls to secure a $440 million profit by keeping Bitcoin price above $30,000 in the short term.