Recently, the value of Bitcoin faced fluctuations due to the introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States. A peculiar event unfolded last week as there were five consecutive days of negative outflows, a first in their brief history. This anomaly was attributed to significant outflows from Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, influenced by actions from the insolvent crypto lending company Genesis.

ETF Developments

Observers are anticipating a return to normalcy in the ETF realm. Maple Finance's director of capital markets and growth, Quinn Thompson, raised an interesting query over the weekend:

"What will investors do when ETF flows become positive again?"

Despite the outflows from the GBTC fund, major ETF providers sustained their inflows, indicating that new investors were not offloading. Thomas Fahrer, CEO of the crypto-focused review platform Apollo, shared his insights on the situation this week:

"Despite GBTC selling 31,000 Bitcoins last week and a 1% price drop, there is strong demand to counter this selling pressure."

Impact on Macro Economic Data

This week, the focus in the US macroeconomic landscape is on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, a key inflation metric favored by the Federal Reserve. Following the recent decision not to decrease interest rates, markets were anticipating Chairman Jerome Powell's statements, which hinted at potential rate cuts later in the year.

Based on the latest data from CME Group's FedWatch tool, the likelihood of an interest rate cut in May rose to 13.7%, up from below 10%. The probability for June stands at 66%.

Powell is scheduled to speak again this week, possibly reinforcing expectations of rate cuts. However, his conference on March 29 coincides with a market holiday on Friday. The Kobeissi Letter, a reputable trade source, highlighted:

"With two recent high inflation reports, all attention is on the upcoming PCE inflation report."

Meanwhile, financial analyst Tedtalksmacro emphasized that the $1.2 trillion US spending package announced last week sets the stage for further increases in risk assets. In a post, he mentioned:

"The Fed's confirmation of a slowdown in QT and anticipated interest rate cuts by year-end signal a need for more Bitcoin."