According to crypto analyst Markus Thielen, Bitcoin (BTC) must see a slowdown in United States inflation before it can consider surpassing its all-time highs reached in March. Thielen, head researcher at 10x Research, stated in a report on May 29 that if inflation prints 3.3% or lower, Bitcoin should make a new all-time high. This represents a 0.1 percentage point decrease from the previous CPI result, which came in at 3.4% on May 15.

Thielen believes that spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) inflows will remain strong in anticipation of the CPI results, which are set to be released on June 12. However, if the CPI results turn out to be higher than expected, momentum could weaken, as seen earlier this year. Over the past two weeks, since May 13, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows tracked by Farside data have been positive day-on-day, with the highest day of total inflows on May 21 at $305.7 million.

Thielen argued that there are no "random" moves in Bitcoin's price; it all comes down to critical drivers, with its main driver being inflation. There have been several instances throughout this year when Bitcoin's price declined following higher-than-expected CPI results. For example, on April 10, the CPI was printed at 3.5%, just 0.1% higher than expected, and Bitcoin's price dropped 6.67% to $56,000 just a few weeks later.

The analyst noted that when spot Bitcoin ETFs launched on January 11, despite $611 million in inflows on the first day, the rest of January's inflows were disappointing. He claimed that the main reason for this was that CPI results printed "higher" than expected. Thielen wrote, "The CPI came in at 3.4%, higher than the 3.2% expected number and higher than the 3.1% recorded in the previous month. It is no coincidence that Bitcoin was weak in January and stronger into March but consolidated for two months."

Thielen's analysis highlights the significant impact of inflation on Bitcoin's price movements. As the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, Bitcoin is often seen as a store of value and a hedge against inflation. Therefore, any changes in inflation expectations can significantly influence investor sentiment and, in turn, impact Bitcoin's price.

The upcoming CPI results will be a crucial indicator of whether Bitcoin can break out of its current consolidation phase and reach new all-time highs. If inflation prints 3.3% or lower, it could be a positive sign for Bitcoin, indicating a slowdown in inflation and potentially leading to increased investor confidence in the cryptocurrency market.

On the other hand, if the CPI results turn out to be higher than expected, it could lead to a decrease in investor sentiment and a potential drop in Bitcoin's price. This would be in line with previous instances where higher-than-expected CPI results led to a decline in Bitcoin's price.

Bitcoin's path to new all-time highs hinges on slowing inflation, and the upcoming CPI results will be a crucial indicator of whether this will happen. If inflation prints 3.3% or lower, Bitcoin should make a new all-time high, but if the results turn out to be higher than expected, momentum could weaken. As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, it is essential to keep a close eye on critical drivers like inflation to understand the potential impact on Bitcoin's price movements.

The crypto community is eagerly awaiting the CPI results, and the next few weeks will be crucial in determining the direction of Bitcoin's price. Will Bitcoin reach new all-time highs, or will inflation concerns weigh it down? Only time will tell, but one thing is certain - the relationship between Bitcoin and inflation will continue to be a critical factor in shaping the cryptocurrency market.