Many in the crypto community had expected Bitcoin’s price to soar after its halving event. Yet, despite this quadrennial event, Bitcoin has not yet seen a significant price surge.

Recently, Tarek On-Chain's analysis of the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio suggests that a rebound might be on the horizon for Bitcoin. CryptoQuant, a notable on-chain data analytics firm, highlights insights from Tarek On-Chain's analysis pointing towards this potential uptick.

Understanding MVRV and Its Role in Predicting Bitcoin Prices

The MVRV ratio is crucial for long-term Bitcoin investors as it effectively signals market tops and bottoms. When the MVRV ratio is below 2, it indicates that Bitcoin is in an accumulation phase and still undervalued. Conversely, when this ratio exceeds 2, it suggests that Bitcoin is approaching a peak. Historically, market peaks have occurred when the MVRV ratio hits 3.5 or higher, a level where investors are typically advised to start selling off their holdings.

According to Tarek On-Chain, the current MVRV ratio stands at 2.3. This implies that Bitcoin has significant potential for price growth before reaching its fair value. Even if there’s a short-term price drop, it presents an opportunity for investors to buy Bitcoin with the expectation of a future rebound.

External Factors and Future Predictions

Some market analysts also believe that geopolitical factors, such as the Israel-Hamas conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war, could influence Bitcoin's price. For instance, Bitcoin's price dropped by 67% following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, hitting $15,476 in May 2022.

However, the launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF and the recent halving event have contributed to Bitcoin's price recovery this year. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $68,306.30, marking a 0.68% increase.

In conclusion, the MVRV ratio indicates that Bitcoin may still have considerable growth potential. While external geopolitical factors could impact its price, the overall outlook remains positive, with a new price peak potentially on the horizon.