Bitcoin's price trajectory has been ensnared within the confines of a descending triangle pattern ever since it surged to a new all-time high of roughly $74,800 on March 14. Despite numerous attempts over the past two months to break decisively above the upper trendline or below the lower trendline of the triangle, the cryptocurrency has faced rejection each time, highlighting lingering uncertainty among traders regarding the market's next move.

As of May 15, Bitcoin's price recorded a 2% uptick, reaching an intraday peak of around $63,000. This uptick, however, was accompanied by diminished trading volumes, signaling an extended period of consolidation within the boundaries of the triangle pattern.

During Bitcoin's consolidation phase, there has been a slight uptick in the supply held by entities possessing 1,000-10,000 BTC and 10,000-100,000 BTC. This accumulation trend among smaller whale cohorts corresponds with a marginal decrease in supply held by entities possessing at least 100,000 BTC. This dynamic suggests a redistribution of supply, with smaller holders absorbing selling pressure from larger holders, thereby maintaining a balance between buying and selling in the Bitcoin market.

Descending triangle patterns within bullish trends are typically viewed as bullish continuation patterns from a technical standpoint. These patterns often resolve with a breakout above the upper trendline, leading to a price surge equivalent to the maximum distance between the upper and lower trendlines. This sets Bitcoin's upside target for May at approximately $73,840, marking a 17.5% increase from current price levels.

Conversely, a breakdown below the triangle's lower trendline could signal a rare descending triangle reversal scenario, potentially precipitating a decline to around $49,000.

Bitcoin's current consolidation phase aligns with its fourth halving event and mirrors price patterns observed around the third halving in 2020. Furthermore, during both instances, the daily relative strength index (RSI) remained within the 30-70 neutral zone, indicating stable market conditions without extreme bullish or bearish sentiment. This recurring trend suggests that halving events prompt a period of price stabilization as market participants adjust to the altered supply dynamics.

Bitcoin's open interest, a gauge of outstanding derivative contracts, has witnessed a significant decline from its recent peak. Although it previously exceeded $39 billion on March 29, it has since tapered off to approximately $30 billion and has stabilized at this level. The stabilization in open interest, coupled with a moderate funding rate of 0.037% per week as of May 15, suggests a subdued trading environment characterized by uncertainty about future price movements beyond the short term.