The SEC has requested spot Ethereum ETF applicants to update their 19b-4 filings, which has increased optimism about potential approvals, sources say.

On May 20, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas mentioned that the SEC might not deny the pending applications as expected. He referenced ETF Store President Nate Geraci, who suggested that the SEC could approve 19b-4 exchange listing rules while delaying decisions on S-1 registration statements.

James Seyffart noted that he and Balchunas had heard from multiple sources and anticipated several new filings in the coming days.

FOX Business reporter Eleanor Terret confirmed with her sources that the SEC has instructed issuers to update their 19b-4 filings, describing the situation as “evolving in real-time.”

Bloomberg raises approval odds to 75%

Balchunas and Seyffart increased their approval odds for a spot Ethereum ETF to 75% from previous estimates of 25-30%.

Balchunas also remarked that the issue has become highly political, a topic discussed extensively in the past week.

On May 15, Coinbase Research Analyst David Han suggested that the US election year could affect the SEC’s decision. Balchunas had then called Han’s comments a “risk-free PR move,” emphasizing that his own predictions were more reputationally risky.

Bankless founder Ryan Sean Adams, who previously agreed that politics might influence approvals, supported Balchunas’ current stance, stating:

“This is what political pressure during election years can do.”

Some remain skeptical. Ron Hammond, Blockchain Association Director of Government Relations, stated on May 20 that many expect the SEC to deny applications due to political indicators and issuer comments.

First deadline nears

With deadlines approaching, the SEC must decide on VanEck’s spot ETH ETF proposal by May 23 but could address multiple applications at once.

The prediction market Polymarket now indicates a 10% chance of a spot Ethereum ETF being approved by the end of May, based on crypto-backed bets.

These developments coincide with a sudden rise in ETH prices. Ethereum surged 20% in 24 hours, with most gains occurring within two hours of Balchunas’ announcement. The broader crypto market is up 6.7% over 24 hours, while Bitcoin has risen 5.2%.