As the Bitcoin options expiry approaches on May 31, bullish investors are facing a ticking clock to push the price above $70,000. Despite multiple failed attempts to sustain prices above $71,000, derivatives betting on $80,000 and $90,000 continue to proliferate, driven by expectations of high-volatility events and increased corporate adoption of Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency market is known for its unpredictability, and the upcoming options expiry is no exception.

The $6.5 billion options expiry on May 31 is dominated by bullish call options, with 91% of them placed at $72,000 or higher. This indicates that investors are highly optimistic about Bitcoin's price reaching new heights. However, given the inability of bulls to break the $70,000 resistance over the past week, it's likely that these excessively optimistic call options will become worthless. The options market is a complex and dynamic system, and the outcome of the expiry will depend on various factors, including market sentiment, trading volume, and external events.

The Nasdaq Composite index breaking its all-time high above 17,000 points on May 28 indicates investor confidence in the U.S. Federal Reserve's soft landing plan, creating a positive outlook for risk-on assets like Bitcoin. The stock market and cryptocurrency market are closely linked, and the performance of one can impact the other. The approval of the spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the U.S. creates competition for institutional investors' funds, making it challenging for Bitcoin to sustain a rally. The ETF approval is a significant development in the cryptocurrency market, and its impact on Bitcoin's price will be closely watched.

Aggregate data predicts a $270 million profit for bulls if BTC trades above $70,000. This is a significant amount of money, and it highlights the high stakes involved in the options market. However, with less than three days remaining until the monthly expiry, it would be surprising if bulls manage to push Bitcoin's price above $70,000 given the lack of short-term catalysts. Therefore, the odds favor a neutral outcome near $68,000. The options market is a zero-sum game, where one party's gain is another party's loss. The outcome of the expiry will depend on the collective actions of market participants.

The open interest of calls and puts instruments reveals that call options dominate with a 70% higher notional value, but 99% of these instruments will be deemed null if BTC trades below $70,000 on May 31. Put option investors will also be disappointed if Bitcoin remains near $67,800 on the monthly expiry, as only 5% of those $1.7 billion contracts were placed at $68,000 or higher. The options market is a complex system, and the open interest of calls and puts instruments provides valuable insights into market sentiment.

Deribit, the absolute leader in the options market, accounts for a 71% market share of Bitcoin's monthly open interest in May, followed by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), OKX exchange, Binance, and Bybit. The options market is a competitive space, and Deribit's dominance highlights its position as a leading player in the industry. If Bitcoin remains near $67,800 on May 31, the aggregate open interest for call options will be $135 million, while the put options open interest at $68,000 amounts to $145 million, making it a fairly balanced outcome.

While bullish Bitcoin options dominate May's $6.5 billion expiry, the clock is ticking for bulls to pushThere was a problem generating a response. Please try again later.