The recent revelation that the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has no plans to offer Solana (SOL) futures has significantly dampened expectations for a Solana ETF in the near future ¹. Despite earlier speculations that CME might be planning to offer Solana futures, a person familiar with the situation has clarified that CME has no such plans. This decision is quite reasonable given the constant assessments that are being conducted within the cryptocurrency derivatives market.

CME's decision not to pursue a Solana-based futures product is a significant setback for Solana ETF hopes. James Seyffart, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg, has noted that it could take several years before a Solana ETF emerges, thanks to the regulatory environment of the United States ¹. The current position of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Solana as a security only adds to the complexity of the situation. Unlike Ethereum, which the SEC has not categorically declared as a security, Solana has been categorized as a security in the lawsuits against Coinbase and Kraken. This classification poses a major challenge in the creation of a Solana-based ETF.

The legal framework is an essential factor for the creation and approval of crypto ETFs. The recently passed FIT21 bill in the House of Representatives enables the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to categorize some altcoins as commodities ¹. If the SEC changes its position regarding the classification of the cryptocurrency in question, this event may create an opportunity for Solana. However, as it stands, the SEC's clear categorization of Solana as a security is still an issue.

Despite the setback, some analysts predict that Solana could be the next token to appear in the US in the form of a crypto-based spot ETF after Ethereum ¹. However, for a Solana spot ETF to become a reality, there must be a Solana futures product on the CME or better and clear regulation of cryptocurrencies. The legal framework is an essential factor for the creation and approval of crypto ETFs.

In conclusion, CME's decision not to offer Solana futures has significantly dampened expectations for a Solana ETF in the near future. The current regulatory environment in the United States, particularly the SEC's classification of Solana as a security, poses a major challenge in the creation of a Solana-based ETF. However, some analysts predict that Solana could still have a chance in the US market, albeit with clearer regulation and a futures product on the CME.