On May 15, the cryptocurrency market experienced a notable 5.5% increase in total capitalization following the release of inflation and retail sales data from the United States. However, despite this bullish momentum, Ether (ETH) failed to fully leverage the positive market sentiment. Ether's price has remained below the $3,000 mark for over five days now and has lagged behind Bitcoin (BTC) by 22% since the beginning of 2024.

The positive response from the crypto markets to the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data, which indicated a 3.4% year-over-year rise in April, was somewhat offset by the retail sales data for the same period. The retail sales data, released on May 15, showed stability compared to the previous month, contrary to economists' expectations of a 0.4% increase. This unexpected development raised concerns among investors about potential measures by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to stimulate the economy.

Despite the possibility of the Fed maintaining interest rates above 5.25% to combat inflation, the central bank may resort to actions such as purchasing government securities and reducing the discount rate to inject more money into the economy. This liquidity provision could influence economic expectations and behaviors, favoring investments in scarce assets like stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies.

While weaker economic activity may lead to increased liquidity injection, it also necessitates additional government debt issuance to fund expansionary measures, potentially leading to higher inflation over time. The upcoming decision by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on May 23 regarding VanEck's spot Ethereum ETF application is considered a significant factor in Ethereum's struggle to surpass the $3,000 resistance level. Traders are cautious due to the uncertainty surrounding this event and may postpone investment decisions until the outcome is clearer.

Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, has expressed skepticism about the approval of a spot Ethereum ETF in 2024, given the SEC's cautious stance on products that could be classified as securities. This skepticism is mirrored in the Ether derivatives markets, where there is a lack of optimism among professional traders, as evidenced by the stable Ether futures premium and balanced demand for call and put options.

Although it's challenging to pinpoint the exact reasons behind Ether's inability to capitalize on recent market gains, factors such as uncertainty surrounding the spot Ethereum ETF decision and Ethereum's transition to becoming inflationary due to reduced transaction fees may be contributing to its price remaining below $3,000.