There's a mix of hope and doubt surrounding the potential passage of a stablecoin bill in the near future. Recent legislative developments in the Senate and comments from key figures suggest progress, but unresolved issues linger, casting uncertainty over the bill's fate.

Maxine Waters, Ranking Democrat of the House Financial Services Committee, expressed optimism about advancing a stablecoin bill in collaboration with Chair Patrick McHenry. Despite their ongoing efforts, Waters previously criticized a bill from last year due to a provision allowing state regulators to approve stablecoin issuances independently, without Federal Reserve oversight.

Cody Carbone, vice president of policy for the Chamber of Digital Commerce, acknowledges the optimism but points out the persistent issue of determining the primary regulator for stablecoin issuers. The unresolved debate between state and federal regulation remains a significant hurdle.

While a Senate bill proposes federal and state regulatory regimes for stablecoin issuers, incorporating a compromise to preserve the dual banking system, doubts remain about whether this addresses the core concerns.

Efforts to include a stablecoin bill in the Federal Aviation Administration reauthorization or other legislative packages are underway. However, the likelihood of success is uncertain, with Carbone estimating a 35% chance of inclusion in the FAA reauthorization.

Ultimately, while there's a desire for a regulatory framework for stablecoins, the path to passage remains unclear, with potential opportunities for attachment to other bills post-election season.