The deadline for the first spot Ethereum ETF decision is Wednesday, May 23, when the SEC will decide on VanEck’s application. The following day, Thursday, May 24, is the deadline for the Ark 21Shares spot ETH ETF, and Wednesday’s decision will influence other issuers like Hashdex, Grayscale, Invesco Galaxy, BlackRock, and Fidelity.

Approval Chances Slim

On May 20, Nate Geraci, President of ETF Store, noted that the SEC must approve both the 19b-4s (exchange rule changes) and the S-1s (registration statements) for ETFs to proceed. He suggested it’s possible the SEC might approve the 19b-4s and delay the S-1s, reflecting their limited engagement with issuers.

A 19b-4 is filed by a national securities exchange to the SEC for rule changes or new products, such as spot ETH ETFs. An S-1 is the registration form for new securities, providing detailed information about a company’s operations and products.

Industry observer "Gronky" explained that the SEC might use delay tactics to further evaluate market conditions or the specific ETF structures without outright rejecting the applications.

Only five SEC Commissioners will vote on VanEck’s ETF approval on Wednesday, including Gary Gensler, who previously voted in favor of spot Bitcoin ETFs. The other commissioners are crypto-friendly Hester Pierce and Mark Uyeda, and anti-crypto Caroline Crenshaw and Jaime Lizárraga, potentially making Gensler’s vote decisive.

ETH Price Implications

If the SEC approves VanEck’s fund on Wednesday, ETH prices are expected to rise short term. However, the general expectation is a rejection.

One analyst believes Ethereum’s bottom is already in and spot ETFs will eventually be approved, even if denied this week. Analyst "Mister Crypto" noted that the bearish rejection scenario is likely already priced in, a view shared by other traders and analysts.

An unexpected approval could surprise the market, leading to a quick rise in ETH prices to resistance at $3,500 or higher. Currently, ETH prices are just under $3,100.