I recently came across some insights from Andrew Kang, a founder and partner at Mechanism Capital, about the potential impact of spot Ether ETFs on Ethereum's price. He thinks that once these ETFs launch, Ethereum could fall by 30%, dropping to around $2,400 from its current price of about $3,410.

Kang argues that, unlike Bitcoin, Ether doesn't attract as much institutional interest, and there are few incentives to convert spot Ether into ETFs. He pointed out that the network's cash flows have been underwhelming, and he doesn’t see much upside from an Ether ETF.

He expects the price to range between $2,400 and $3,000 after the ETF launch. This would be a significant drop, especially considering Ether reached over $4,000 in March.

Kang also noted that spot Ether ETFs are likely to attract only about 15% of the flows seen by spot Bitcoin ETFs, estimating about $840 million in new inflows. He believes that crypto natives have overinflated expectations about the ETF's impact, and that it's already priced in.

Not everyone agrees with Kang's prediction. For instance, industry analyst Patrick Scott expects similar directional movement to Bitcoin ETFs but doesn’t see Ether doubling in price. Asset management firm VanEck, on the other hand, thinks spot Ether ETFs could help drive Ether to $22,000 by 2030.

Kang also mentioned that Ethereum’s pitch as a decentralized financial settlement layer or Web3 app store might not be compelling enough when you look at the data. Ethereum's revenue hasn’t been as promising lately, and without staking, the appeal of these ETFs might be limited.

Interestingly, Kang acknowledged that while institutions like BlackRock are moving into the real-world asset tokenization space on Ethereum, he’s unsure about its impact on Ether’s price. He believes the ETH/BTC price ratio could slide from 0.054 to as low as 0.035 over the next year. However, he also thinks that a Bitcoin rally to $100,000 could drag Ether to a new all-time high.