In recent days, the likelihood of Ethereum ETFs being approved has significantly increased, with potential approval expected soon, possibly even today. This situation is different from the Bitcoin ETF approvals, with the rapid developments leading to speculation about last-minute political intervention. Regardless, there is now a considerable chance that these products will be approved shortly.

Leading up to the Bitcoin ETF approvals, there were weeks of positive indicators, including the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) engaging with issuers, providing feedback, and receiving revised applications. By the time of approval, it was almost certain that all ETFs would be approved simultaneously, despite some issues like the SEC’s account being hacked and premature announcements.

In contrast, for Ethereum ETFs, there was no engagement from the SEC until very recently, causing analysts to initially predict low chances of approval. However, on May 20, reports emerged that the SEC had begun engaging with Ethereum ETF issuers, surprising both the issuers and parts of the SEC itself. This lack of coordination within the SEC has led to speculation about political motivations, especially with presidential candidate Donald Trump’s campaign now accepting cryptocurrency donations.

Since May 20, issuers have updated their 19b-4 forms, which have been published on the SEC website with relatively light feedback, suggesting a quick turnaround. For an ETF to be approved, the SEC must approve both the 19b-4 forms and the S-1 registration statements. The SEC has now started engaging with issuers on the S-1 forms, another positive sign for potential approval.

The next steps involve the SEC approving the 19b-4 forms, which would indicate preliminary approval of the ETFs. Today is crucial because it’s the final day for the VanEck Ethereum ETF to be either approved or denied. If denied, VanEck would need to reapply. If the 19b-4 forms are approved, the final step is for the S-1 forms to go effective, allowing trading to begin. However, the S-1 approval might take longer, potentially extending the process by weeks or months.