A notable election forecaster Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted the outcome of nine out of the last ten presidential elections, has projected that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the upcoming November election against former President Donald Trump. Lichtman uses a unique model based on 13 true-or-false questions that focus on key indicators rather than polling data.

In a video for the New York Times, Lichtman stated, “Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States—at least that’s my prediction for this race, but the outcome is up to you, so get out and vote.” His model's 13 keys cover various factors, including the strength of the economy, party unity, foreign policy successes, and the charisma of the candidates.

According to Lichtman, eight keys currently favor Harris, while three favor Trump:

1. House Seats: The White House party did not gain seats in the 2022 midterms, as Democrats lost some seats.

2. Incumbent President: Joe Biden's decision not to run again costs the Democrats another key.

3. Candidate Charisma: Harris does not meet the high standard of a charismatic, once-in-a-generation candidate.

Two additional keys, concerning foreign policy successes or failures, could still change before the election. Lichtman noted the Biden administration's involvement in the ongoing conflict in Gaza, which could potentially affect these keys. However, even if both were to flip in favor of Trump, it would still leave him short of the keys needed to win back the White House.

While Lichtman predicts a victory for Harris, he has previously emphasized the importance of Biden's candidacy, once calling suggestions to replace him "foolhardy nonsense." Current polling data shows a close race, with the Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s national polling average giving Harris a 3.6 percentage point lead over Trump based on an aggregate of 156 polls.

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