"Put the May Fed meeting on hold, as attention shifts to the upcoming second quarter refunding announcement next week. Arthur Hayes, renowned crypto trader and founder of Maelstrom investment fund, foresees potential market moves, particularly in stocks and the crypto sphere, depending on how the U.S. Treasury manages its general account refinancing by May 1.

Hayes outlines three potential scenarios orchestrated by Treasury Secretary Yellen: 1. Draining the Treasury general account to zero, injecting $1 trillion into liquidity. 2. Shifting borrowing to T-bills, injecting $400 billion into liquidity by reducing funds in reverse repurchase agreements. 3. A combination of both strategies, issuing only short-term bills while depleting both the general account and reverse repurchase agreements, injecting $1.4 trillion into liquidity.

Emptying the Treasury general account, typically used for government payments, could serve as a stimulus, potentially boosting assets like bitcoin.

Hayes dismisses the significance of the Fed, emphasizing the importance of Yellen's actions.

Althea Spinozzi, head of fixed income strategy at Saxo Bank, highlights the market's focus on the Treasury general account level in an upcoming announcement.

The recent surge in bitcoin prices, reaching an all-time high of over $70,000, was largely driven by expectations of a Fed interest rate cut and the launch of Wall Street spot bitcoin ETFs. However, recent economic data diminishes the likelihood of a rate cut, and inflows into new bitcoin ETFs have slowed.

Rachel Lin, CEO of Singapore-based derivatives decentralized exchange SynFutures, notes a bearish drift in the crypto market this week. Despite earlier optimism, bitcoin's halving event failed to significantly impact prices. Lin predicts a sideways or declining trend until bitcoin surpasses its previous high of $73,600."