Crypto expert Smac challenges the notion of "wisdom of crowds" in financial markets, citing overconfidence and irrationality, particularly post-FTX collapse. Despite Bitcoin's doubling in price, public sentiment remains mixed about its future growth. Smac questions mid-cycle theories and analyzes the market cycle using time and price metrics.

A year after the FTX collapse, Bitcoin surged to $35,000, but sentiment was divided. Smac's surveys showed only half expected a further 30% increase, while fewer anticipated ongoing rises. He initially predicted Bitcoin would hit $45,000 and $60,000 but has become less confident due to short-term market unpredictability.

Smac explores the current cycle phase, contrasting time and price metrics. With Bitcoin roughly 3x off its lowest point, the cycle differs from previous ones. The traditional flow from Bitcoin to Ethereum to broader crypto assets has been disrupted, causing investor frustration. The recent Bitcoin ETF approval represents a significant shift, but Smac criticizes overconfidence in predicting its effects.

Despite skepticism, Bitcoin's price trajectory remains relentless, with little room for new investors. On-chain activity indicates an increase in stablecoin supply and active addresses, suggesting an earlier cycle phase than many think. Retail participation remains low, indicating potential market expansion.

Smac argues against cynicism surrounding the current cycle's potential, emphasizing we're likely just a third into this cycle. He remains "turbo optimistic" about crypto's future, driven by ongoing projects and emerging innovations at the intersection of technology and real-world applications.