In an analysis shared on X, Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, suggested that the Bitcoin market might experience less sell pressure than expected from the Mt. Gox bankruptcy resolution. Starting in July, Bitcoin (BTC) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) distributions to creditors will mark the conclusion of a decade-long legal battle following the collapse of one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges.

Mt. Gox, which once managed over 70% of Bitcoin transactions, declared bankruptcy in 2014 after losing around 940,000 BTC. Over the years, 141,868 BTC were recovered, now worth approximately $9 billion due to Bitcoin’s price increase.

Thorn's analysis, based on bankruptcy filings and creditor discussions, indicated that the "early payout" option, involving a 10% reduction, has been chosen by about 75% of creditors. This option leaves approximately 65,000 BTC/BCH for distribution. Thorn believes that most creditors, being long-time Bitcoin enthusiasts, are unlikely to sell their holdings immediately. This belief is supported by their previous resistance to aggressive offers from claims funds and the significant capital gains taxes that selling would incur.

Even if 10% of the 65,000 BTC were sold, it would amount to around 6,500 BTC entering the market, a figure Thorn suggests will be absorbed without major disruption due to Bitcoin's liquidity on major exchanges like Kraken and Bitstamp.

For Bitcoin Cash, which has lower liquidity and market depth, Thorn anticipates greater volatility. With only $400,000 liquidity within 1% of the current market price, BCH could see significant price movements as creditors start selling.

Thorn’s detailed analysis indicates a moderate market impact from the Mt. Gox distributions, with fewer Bitcoins entering the market than feared and a likely higher volume of Bitcoin Cash being sold. He advises stakeholders to monitor transaction movements closely, particularly through platforms like Arkham Intelligence, to assess the real-time impact of these distributions.

At press time, BTC was trading at $61,405.