The concept of halving within the Bitcoin ecosystem has long been intertwined with the phenomenon of bull cycles. However, the current surge in Bitcoin's price trajectory appears to be primarily fueled by a distinct force—namely, the influx of capital into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), according to the analysis put forth by Bybit's Hao Yang.

Tracking back to the last Bitcoin halving event in 2020, the Bitcoin price has witnessed an impressive ascent, surging approximately 650%. If historical trends are to be a guide, projections suggest that Bitcoin could potentially ascend to a striking $435,000 per coin before the next halving event slated for 2028.

With the forthcoming 2024 Bitcoin halving looming on the horizon, the countdown intensifies, highlighting the cyclical nature of Bitcoin's market dynamics. Based on insights gleaned from historical chart patterns, Bitcoin's current valuation hovering around $66,000 could theoretically skyrocket to a staggering $434,280 per coin by the time of the 2028 halving, provided it follows a trajectory akin to the present cycle.

Nevertheless, it's imperative to note a discernible pattern of diminishing returns in Bitcoin's post-halving rallies over the years. From its inception until the initial halving in 2012, Bitcoin experienced an astronomical surge from virtually negligible value to $12.50—a remarkable leap of over 12,400%. Subsequent halvings witnessed progressively smaller percentage increases, with Bitcoin reaching $650 in 2016 and $8,500 in 2020, representing 5,200% and 1,200% increases, respectively.

This pattern of diminishing returns suggests a gradual decline in Bitcoin's average price rally with each subsequent cycle, currently standing at 658%. Extrapolating this trend forward, projections indicate a potential 360% rally during the next cycle, culminating in an estimated Bitcoin price of approximately $303,600 at the time of the 2028 halving.

While the discourse often revolves around the influence of halving events on Bitcoin's trajectory, Hao Yang of Bybit posits that the recent surge in Bitcoin's value is predominantly attributed to the influx of capital into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). From a rigorous quantitative standpoint, there's scant evidence to suggest a direct correlation between halving events and Bitcoin's price trajectory. Yang asserts:

"Considering [the] halving and price trends from a very rigorous quantitative point of view, there is no evidence supporting a positive correlation between the halving event and BTC price. But history can be interpreted in many different ways. I certainly hope for $435,000 by 2028 but won’t put too much into it."

The potential for Bitcoin to attain a six-figure price tag appears even more plausible with the prospect of Bitcoin ETFs surpassing gold ETFs within the next couple of years, as posited by Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas in a research report dated February 26. Additionally, the exponential growth trajectory of Bitcoin ETFs, outpacing that of gold ETFs during their nascent stages, underscores the rapid evolution and maturation of the cryptocurrency market.

In essence, Bitcoin seems to be "speedrunning" the trajectory of gold's price, hinting at a future where digital assets may eclipse traditional store-of-value assets like gold. As Sam Wouters, the head of contact at River, aptly puts it:

"Bitcoin is basically just 5x speedrunning gold’s trajectory. The last 10 years of Bitcoin look a bit like a squished version of gold’s last 50. No wonder some people get salty."