The recent approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs and Spot Ethereum ETFs by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) has stirred discussions among the crypto community regarding potential price surges.

Bitcoin Analyst's Insights

In response to the ETF developments in Hong Kong, Willy Woo, co-founder and analyst at CMCC Crest, shared his views on the potential effect on Bitcoin's price.

Woo mentioned that the introduction of new Bitcoin ETFs, as indicated by asset managers, could drive Bitcoin's price to a range between $91,000 and a peak of $650,000 once the capital deployment by ETF investors is complete.

Despite these projections, Woo highlighted the gradual nature of capital inflow and refrained from providing a specific timeline for the realization of these estimations. He suggested that post the distribution of capital by asset managers, Bitcoin could potentially surpass the market cap of gold.

Bitcoin Price Forecast

Woo further outlined the possible consequences of ETF adoption on Bitcoin's market value to the crypto community.

Beginning with a hypothetical scenario involving a total asset management capital of $100 trillion, assuming a standard 2% Bitcoin allocation akin to Fidelity, an approximate $2 trillion inflow into Bitcoin could materialize.

Currently, on-chain data reflects investments of roughly $561,159,959 in Bitcoin. With the integration of capital inflows from the ETFs, the collective investment in Bitcoin might escalate to $2.56 trillion.

Woo referenced the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio to estimate potential market scenarios. Typically, MVRV ratios peak at 5 times during bull markets and stand at around 0.7 times during bear markets.

These calculations suggest potential market capitalizations of $12.8 trillion and $1.8 trillion, indicating corresponding price levels per coin of $650,000 and $91,000, respectively.

However, Woo acknowledged that these forecasts could signify potential bottom thresholds and acknowledged the absence of unaccounted entries and wallets in this assessment.