The likelihood of approval for a spot Ether ETF is intertwined with the outcome of the US elections and a potential victory for Donald Trump, as per insights from Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas.

Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas, has indicated that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could decline spot Ether ETF applications by May 23. Additionally, the approval for a spot Ethereum ETF may not materialize until the conclusion of 2025.

The approval prospects for a spot Ethereum ETF are heavily influenced by the 2024 US elections. A victory for Donald Trump could lead to a more favorable regulatory environment at the SEC compared to the current leadership under Gary Gensler.

Anticipated Rejection of Spot Ethereum ETF by SEC

The SEC is expected to reach a decision on spot Ether ETF applications around May 23 and May 24, with VanEck and Ark Invest being the frontrunners for consideration on these dates.

The lack of enthusiasm from the SEC and its officials towards spot Ethereum ETFs, coupled with the current regulatory landscape surrounding Ethereum, has cast a shadow of doubt on the likelihood of approval within this year.

The SEC is likely to evaluate each spot Ethereum ETF application individually, with deadlines for BlackRock iShares Ethereum ETF and Fidelity Ethereum ETF set for August.

Recent data from Polymarket indicates a rise in the odds of Ethereum ETF approval by May 31, climbing from a low of 6% on May 6 to 13%. However, the SEC's reluctance to engage in meaningful discussions with ETF issuers regarding spot Ether ETFs has dampened market sentiment within the crypto community.

Potential Impact of a Trump Victory on Ethereum ETF Approval

The outcome of the 2024 US presidential election holds significance for the approval chances of an Ethereum ETF. A victory for Donald Trump would likely result in a change in leadership at the SEC. While Joe Biden has expressed skepticism towards cryptocurrencies, Trump has utilized crypto-related issues to criticize Biden.

Entrepreneur Mark Cuban has voiced criticism towards SEC Chair Gary Gensler and the New York SEC, cautioning about potential repercussions in the upcoming election if the current regulatory trends persist.

The price of ETH experienced a 7% decline this week, currently trading at $2,927, with a 24-hour low and high of $2,881 and $2,942, respectively. Moreover, there has been a 14% decrease in trading volume over the last 24 hours.