JPMorgan economists have revised their prediction for the first rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, shifting their forecast from July to November. This change comes after stronger than expected employment data in May, which has significantly reduced the likelihood of a rate cut in July.

The bank's chief US economist, Michael Feroli, now anticipates the Federal Reserve will make its first rate cut in November, followed by consecutive quarterly cuts next year. This revised prediction is a significant shift from JPMorgan's previous forecast, which was one of the few institutions still predicting a rate cut in July.

Feroli's revised prediction is based on the recent employment data, which has shown stronger job growth than expected. He stated that the possibility of a rate cut in July now seems very slim, and that it may require all five employment reports from now until November to show weakness in order to pass the rate cut test.

The revised prediction has significant implications for the US economy, as it suggests that the Federal Reserve will take a more cautious approach to monetary policy. The Federal Reserve has been closely monitoring the employment data, and the revised prediction suggests that they will wait for more evidence of a slowdown in the labor market before making a decision on interest rates.

In conclusion, JPMorgan economists have revised their prediction for the first rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, shifting their forecast from July to November. This change is based on stronger than expected employment data in May, and suggests that the Federal Reserve will take a more cautious approach to monetary policy. The revised prediction has significant implications for the US economy, and will be closely watched by investors and policymakers alike.