Amidst heightened anticipation surrounding Bitcoin's fourth halving event, analysts at Kaiko offer a nuanced perspective, suggesting that the event may not trigger a sustained bull run over the next 12-18 months. Contrary to previous halvings, where the reduction in miners' rewards was viewed as a primary catalyst for Bitcoin's growth, the current environment presents a different landscape, according to a recent research report from the Paris-based blockchain firm.

"While Bitcoin has historically experienced significant returns following its halving events, the latest halving occurs within a context of a maturing asset class and uncertain macroeconomic conditions," stated Kaiko analysts.

Instead of relying solely on the halving event to drive price appreciation, analysts assert that Bitcoin's future trajectory will hinge on its ability to attract new investors, particularly through the introduction of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. and forthcoming listings in Hong Kong. This trend underscores Bitcoin's increasing acceptance within mainstream finance, signaling a pivotal moment for the cryptocurrency.

The current halving event unfolds against the backdrop of a high-interest rate environment, marking a departure from previous cycles. Consequently, analysts note that there is no clear precedent for how Bitcoin will perform in the long term. They emphasize that robust liquidity and growing demand will be critical factors in bolstering Bitcoin's value proposition in the months ahead.

Crypto.news previously highlighted potential deviations from the traditional post-halving price surge pattern, citing factors such as the condensed nature of the price cycle surrounding this halving event. Unlike previous cycles, Bitcoin has already witnessed substantial price increases, reaching new record highs, including a peak at $73,750 in mid-March, before the halving occurred. This dynamic adds complexity to Bitcoin's price trajectory and underscores the need for a nuanced understanding of the current market dynamics.