In a recent post, pro-XRP lawyer Jeremy Hogan expressed skepticism about the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) achieving a decisive win in its ongoing legal battle with Ripple (XRP). The case is currently headed to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, but Hogan believes the SEC may face challenges, even if it wins the appeal.

The Complexity of the Case

Hogan believes the complexities of the case mean the SEC could have a difficult time during the appeal. Even if the SEC wins, the case would likely go back to the trial court for further examination of the facts. This suggests that the SEC's initial victory could lead to prolonged legal proceedings.

Varied Judicial Interpretations

The judicial landscape shows different interpretations of the case. In July 2023, a district court judge ruled that XRP tokens are not securities when sold to retail investors on exchanges, but Ripple violated federal securities laws through its sales to institutional investors. This contrasts with a separate case where a judge argued that the legal status of a token should not vary based on the investor type, which was a win for the SEC.

Ripple Seeks Relief

The Ripple case is currently in the remedy phase, with Ripple seeking to significantly reduce any fines and penalties. This follows comments from SEC Chair Gary Gensler in July, suggesting the possibility of an appeal against the previous ruling.

Hogan has also criticized the SEC's proposed $2 billion fine on Ripple Labs, arguing that it contradicts the SEC's mission to protect investors. He pointed out that enforcing such a fine would require Ripple to sell a substantial amount of XRP, potentially harming retail holders due to price impacts.

Overall, Hogan's analysis suggests that the SEC may not have a clear path to victory in the Ripple case appeal, given the complexities of the case and the varied judicial interpretations.