France and Italy are set to compete in Nations League A, where they are grouped with Belgium and Israel in what is considered the toughest of the four groups. Only the top two teams in each group will advance to the two-legged quarter-finals in March 2025, with the winners moving on to the Finals in June.

France, one of the pre-tournament favorites, fell short at Euro 2024. Their campaign was hampered early on when key player Kylian Mbappé suffered a broken nose in the opening match against Austria. Despite this setback, France made it to the semi-finals before losing to the eventual champions, Spain. Mbappé, now at Real Madrid, is expected to play in the Nations League despite calls from his club for him to be rested.

Italy, meanwhile, struggled to defend their title at Euro 2024, being knocked out in the Round of 16 by Switzerland. The Azzurri managed only one group-stage win, which came against Albania. Historically, Italy has the upper hand in head-to-head encounters with France, boasting 19 wins to France’s 11, with 9 draws between them. Their meetings have been high-scoring affairs, averaging 3.54 goals per match across 39 encounters.

Probable Lineups for France vs Italy

France (4-3-3):*
Maignan; Kounde, Upamecano, Saliba, Hernandez; Kante, Tchouameni, Zaire-Emery; Dembele, Kolo Muani, Mbappé

Italy (4-3-3):
The match will see France, the 2022 World Cup runners-up, face off against Italy, the EURO 2020 champions. Les Bleus, one of only three nations to win the Nations League, have emerged victorious in their last three encounters with Italy.

This showdown also features two coaches with vastly different levels of international experience. Didier Deschamps has just celebrated 12 years at the helm of the French national team, while Luciano Spalletti took charge of Italy only recently, succeeding Roberto Mancini in September.

France aims to reclaim the Nations League trophy they last won in 2021. A strong start at home is crucial, and France has a solid track record, having won their last Nations League match in Paris against Austria 2-0 and sweeping all four home fixtures in their Euro qualification campaign, scoring 21 goals.

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Paris, the City of… Goals

The last two encounters between France and Italy ended in 3-1 victories for Les Bleus, with a 2-1 win preceding those results. The French will be optimistic about continuing this trend, especially with Kylian Mbappé available for selection despite Real Madrid’s reservations. Mbappé has been prolific in the Nations League, scoring seven goals in 15 appearances, more than any other French player. He enters this match in excellent form, having recently scored twice in a 2-0 La Liga victory against Betis.

Spalletti has acknowledged the difficulty of the challenge ahead for Italy. Known for his attacking philosophy, Spalletti is likely to approach this game with the intent to outscore France rather than adopt a defensive posture. His 10 competitive international matches have averaged 2.80 goals per game, suggesting a preference for high-scoring encounters.

Given France’s recent successes against Italy, with both teams finding the net in their last three meetings, this clash promises another goal-filled contest. Defensive frailties on both sides are likely to be tested.

France’s defensive lapses were evident in the previous Nations League edition, where they finished third in their group, narrowly avoiding relegation while conceding seven goals and at least once in five of their six matches. Italy, too, showed vulnerabilities in the summer’s European Championship, where they conceded the fastest goal in tournament history against Albania and failed to keep a clean sheet in all four games, culminating in a Round of 16 exit to Switzerland.

Both teams will be keen to tighten up defensively, but their attacking prowess suggests that goals will be plentiful when they meet.