Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy, predicts that Bitcoin will trade within a range of $55,000 to $75,000 until a new market narrative emerges. According to Novogratz, Bitcoin's price movement may be dormant until a new narrative takes shape, potentially driven by either a change in interest rates by the US central bank or regulatory bodies easing pressure on crypto.

Novogratz believes that Bitcoin always needs a narrative to drive its price movement, with two key narratives being macroeconomic trends and adoption. Historically, Bitcoin's price has been influenced by macroeconomic trends, rising during dovish central bank policy periods and falling during hawkish periods. The recent FOMC meeting, which led to a recovery in BTC price, is a case in point.

Until there is a change in macroeconomic data and a decrease in inflation rates, Novogratz states that the Fed is "on hold," and Bitcoin is aligning with it. This means that Bitcoin will likely trade in a range until there is movement in short-term rates or more regulatory clarity. The launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the first quarter generated excitement, but net outflows have been observed in ETFs during the second quarter. Novogratz also highlights regulatory bodies, expecting greater clarity in cryptocurrencies after the US federal elections this fall.

In summary, Novogratz sees Bitcoin in a holding pattern until a new narrative emerges, driven by either macroeconomic trends or regulatory clarity. Until then, Bitcoin will likely trade within a range, waiting for the next market event to drive its price movement.