Polkadot's mainnet coin DOT has recently faced a significant change in its value. It couldn't rise above its 200-day moving average, leading to a noticeable drop in its value. Now, DOT's price is nearing the lower limit of its usual trading range, hovering around $6. This shift from almost reaching the top of the range has big implications for where the coin might go next, and it's crucial for predicting its current price direction.

On the daily chart, DOT has been trading between $7.5, seen as a strong resistance point, and $6, a crucial support level. The recent drop from the upper limit of this range could mean more downward movement if sellers manage to push the price below $6. On the other hand, if demand increases and the price heads back up to $7.5, it could signal a strong upward trend.

Zooming in on the 4-hour chart, DOT retreated from a significant resistance level around $7.4, leading to a sharp decline towards the lower limit of a rising wedge formation. Currently, it's teetering on the edge of falling below this important support area, suggesting the possibility of further downward movement. However, there's still a chance for demand to rise around this level, potentially pushing the price back towards the upper trend line of the formation.

Examining the sentiment in the futures market offers more insights into Polkadot's future prospects. A notable decrease in both open interest (OI) and funding rates during the period of sideways trading suggests that the futures market might be ripe for aggressive moves. If demand and long positions increase during this consolidation phase, it could signal the start of a bullish trend. Conversely, a return to previous levels of short positions could indicate a gradual decline.

In conclusion, DOT's retreat from $7.4 marks a crucial moment for the coin. Investors are now closely watching the sentiment in the futures market, as well as key support and resistance levels, to anticipate the next significant price movement.