Decentralized betting venue Polymarket has seen a sizable surge in activity as speculation around the outcome of the upcoming USA Presidential election intensifies. Polymarket, which operates on the Ethereum sidechain Polygon, saw its monthly trade volume exceed $100 million for the first time in June, with the current total bet amount standing at $203.3 million. The vast majority of these bets are based on the question of who will emerge as the next President after the 2024 election.

Despite the dominance of this core question, some more niche markets have emerged. Many bettors have taken to speculating whether Kanye West or known cryptocurrency critic Elizabeth Warren stand a chance to take the White House. As of now, their chances are viewed as exceedingly low, well below 1%.

Volumes on Polymarket have been steadily growing. The trading volumes between January and May this year were between $38.9 million and $63 million, a 620% increase from the five months prior. This trend has been accompanied by an increase in active participants: the number of monthly active traders rose by 115% to 29,266 in June.

The total value now invested in Polymarket stands at around $40.2 million, having grown by nearly 69% in the last month. Yuga Cohler, an engineering lead at the Coinbase cryptocurrency exchange, views the rise of decentralized prediction markets as a beneficial societal development. According to him, these platforms provide a clear and unbiased view of truth, cutting through misleading narratives. The surge in Polymarket activity indicates many seem to agree.