Popular crypto-analyst Benjamin Cowen has predicted that the altcoin rally will not occur before February 2025. According to Cowen, the ALT/BTC pairs haven't bottomed out yet. Cowen also believes that the Bitcoin dominance will continue to grow until the Federal Reserve announces rate cuts.

Historically, the ALT/BTC pairs act as oscillators, and despite the recent rallies, they still remain above their long-term lows. Over the past week, the ALT/BTC pairs have bounced back from 0.36 to 0.40. Cowen further emphasized that the 0.36 level marks the lowest point in the ALT/BTC pairs in the past few years. Thus, he suggested that the previous prediction of an altcoin season may have been premature.

Cowen also stated that back in 2019, the ALT/BTC pairs experienced a breakdown just before the Federal Reserve rate cuts, rallying briefly from 0.25 to 0.42. This led many to speculate that BTC dominance has peaked, however, the ALT/BTC pairs subsequently declined to 0.25. Despite the ongoing predictions of a decline in Bitcoin dominance over the years, Cowen notes that it has consistently held above its bull market support bank showing strong resilience since the beginning of 2023.

He also pointed out that significant bullish movements in the ALT/BTC pairs have historically occurred in the post-halving years. Thus, there’s a greater chance of the altcoin rally to begin in 2025 than in 2024. Furthermore, as CoinGape reported, the Fed rate cuts are unlikely to happen in 2024. Thus, liquidity is likely to remain tight until then.

Cowen concluded by stating that the ALT/BTC pairs are likely to continue bleeding until the Fed announces rate cuts and resumes quantitative easing (QE). While there’s a temptation to anticipate these actions, historical cycles consistently indicate that BTC dominance will exceed popular expectations, he said.

Cowen believes that the Federal Reserve will likely keep rates higher for longer at the expense of risk-on assets like altcoins until something breaks. In a new strategy session, crypto trader Benjamin Cowen tells his 788,000 YouTube subscribers that the Federal Reserve won’t care to cut interest rates until the S&P 500 witnesses a severe corrective move.

Liquidity is flowing from high risk to low risk. It doesn’t mean the lower risk things can’t drop, it’s just that when they drop, that normally marks the end because when they drop then the Fed notices. When the S&P drops, then the Fed starts to notice. Do you think the Fed cared about the S&P when it was at 4,600? No, it’s too elevated. Do they care with it at 4,100? Probably not. Will they care if it’s at 3,500 or 3,400? Yes, they will start to care and that is when they’ll start to cut is my guess. So watch the S&P if you’re curious about when altcoins will turn around against Bitcoin.