Jan3 CEO Samson Mow said Bitcoin is on track to hit $1 million per coin this year or the next based on market conditions, the upcoming halving, and broader economic factors.

Mow made the statement during a podcast appearance on March 12, reaffirming previous predictions regarding Bitcoin reaching a seven-figure price level.

Mow’s bullish stance on Bitcoin’s future comes at a time when the crypto market is witnessing an unprecedented level of interest from institutional investors, as seen with the involvement of entities like BlackRock and the emergence of spot Bitcoin ETFs.

The Veblen effect

Mow said that the demand for Bitcoin is far outstripping its supply — a trend that’s only expected to intensify with the upcoming Bitcoin halving, which has historically significantly impacted the crypto’s value.

The halving will reduce the number of bitcoins generated per block, effectively slashing the new supply of Bitcoin by 50% to 3.125 BTC per block or 400 BTC per day.

Mow believes that the halving, coupled with the steady demand from ETFs — reportedly pulling in about 22,000 BTC daily — sets the stage for a substantial price increase.

Beyond the immediate effects of supply and demand trends, Mow delved into more nuanced economic theories to bolster his prediction. He discussed the “Veblen effect,” a phenomenon where the desirability of a good increases with its price.

Mow believes that as Bitcoin’s value climbs, it will become even more sought after, further driving up its price. This is particularly significant as Bitcoin approaches what he terms the “Veblen threshold” —parity with the gold market cap, estimated to be around $450,000 to $500,000 per coin.

Surpassing this threshold could trigger a massive shift of value from gold to Bitcoin, cementing its status as “the new gold.”

Centralization concerns

Mow also addressed concerns about market manipulation and the influence of major players like BlackRock becoming Bitcoin whales. He said one should always assume that such entities are “bad actors.”

Mow said that Bitcoin’s decentralization is the only way to ensure bad actors can be kept in check and emphasized the importance of decentralization in mining, development, and ownership to mitigate risks in the ecosystem.

Furthermore, Mow advocated diversifying Bitcoin’s geographical footprint by onboarding nation-states. He said this would balance power dynamics by pitting institutional players against sovereign entities.

Mow added that if Bitcoin becomes a focal point of competition between major institutional players and nation-states, it would further fuel its ascent.