The chances of a Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF) being approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the next 12 months are tied to a change in the country's leadership, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. While Balchunas did not provide specific odds, he hinted that recent developments have increased the likelihood of both events occurring.

Balchunas' comments come after asset manager VanEck filed an application with the SEC to launch a spot Solana ETF, dubbed VanEck Solana Trust, which would be listed on the Cboe BZX exchange. The move follows the SEC's approval of multiple Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, with the Bitcoin ETFs already trading in the US.

However, Balchunas initially thought the SEC would not approve the Solana ETF application due to the lack of a futures contract for the cryptocurrency. Nevertheless, he suggested that a change in SEC leadership, potentially with Hester Peirce, a pro-crypto commissioner, at the helm, could lead to more favorable regulations and the approval of spot ETFs for various crypto assets, including Solana.

Despite the SEC's delay in approving Ethereum spot ETFs, VanEck's application signals a potential shift in the regulatory landscape. The SEC has previously classified Solana as a security through its lawsuits with Coinbase and Binance, casting doubt on the approval of a spot Solana ETF under the current leadership.

In conclusion, the approval of a Solana ETF is contingent upon a change in SEC leadership and a more favorable regulatory environment. While the odds are uncertain, recent developments suggest a potential shift in the market, and investors are eagerly awaiting the SEC's decision. As always, investors are advised to conduct thorough research and exercise caution when making investment decisions.